9 < 50 < 100 < 200, and 9 crosses above 50
200 > 100 > 50 > 9, and RSI > 68 for 30 min (ideally for 3 15min candles)
Trends to watch out for:
When up/down moves get smaller and smaller, it will soon make a big move!
In the same direction it was going before they started zigzagging.
Why would a stock go up?
- Company is buying back stocks, or just announced it will buyback
- Earnings were released, higher than expected
Why would a coin go up?
- It gets added to another exchange
- It gets supported by a financial institution (like Visa/Chase)
- It gets positive support from a government official who has a say in regulation
News and sentiment analysis:
- If the sentiment is positive and the price does not go up, that is a bearish signal.
- If the sentiment is negative and the price does not go down, that is a bullish signal.
Bear markets happens in phases, and are hard to accurately play. Especially if you just got into a bull market with no experience of bear markets. But anyways, here's a quick explanation that might help:
- First Phase - The Blow-off Top: A blow-off top is a high-volume daily or weekly candle that ends up being nullified. That means that you have a huge move up, but then a huge move down making it either only a slighly green or a red candle. This is the first warning of a possible bear market, but not a definite one. During a bull market you usually see multiple candles like this, but which end up recovering.
- Second Phase - The big crash: Multiple days/weeks of bearish action, taking the price down 40-70%. Currently, that's where we're at, but we haven't properly crashed yet. I'd say if we close this daily or the weekly under 30k, then it counts as a crash.
- Third Phase - The Dead-cat Bounce: A sudden spike in prices, usually recovering about 70%-90% of the loss in price from the big crash. This is essentially the last chance for you to get out of the market, and so many traders choose to stay in the market during such a recovery, in the hopes of the bull market being on again.
- Fourth Phase - The subsequent crashes: The market will then experience either one slow but steady crash, or multiple hard crashes with dead-cat bounces where each bounce is small than the last.
- Fourth Phase - The Consolidation: For a long time the market will go mostly flat and consolidate. This phase can last for months or even years, and this is where most traders give up and sell out.
- Fifth Phase - The Recovery Attempt: The market will try, sometimes multiple times with failure, to recover above a significant resistance. Once the resistance is broken, another bull market starts. Sometimes you see a smaller bull market before the big bull market, which is what we experienced in 2019 after the crash to 3k.
It's also possible for bear markets to start by a slow ascending price turning into descending price, but that's never happened in Crypto, and probably never will due to its volatility.
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